What NOAA records from 2005 to 2025 say about snowmaking weather at Mid-Atlantic resorts
A graduate study finds fewer hours cold enough to make snow near most of our resorts, with big caveats on the data.
Snow guns need cold air, and a new graduate study says there has been a little less of it near most Mid-Atlantic ski areas.
Nicholas Scott Prentice’s master’s dissertation, “Sustaining snow: historical trends and future climate impacts on snowmaking sustainability in Southeastern U.S. ski resorts,” is posted in the University of Malta’s repository. It was written for joint degrees at James Madison University and the University of Malta. Prentice used NOAA hourly weather records from 2005 to 2025 for stations near Wisp, Snowshoe, Winterplace, Massanutten, Wintergreen and Bryce.
The abstract reports “available snowmaking hours reducing by 0.31-5.11% per decade.” At the study’s 28°F wet-bulb mark, its trend table gives these changes per decade in the share of November-to-March hours cold enough for snowmaking:
- Winterplace: -5.11%
- Snowshoe: -4.29%
- Wisp: -3.18%
- Massanutten and Wintergreen (one shared station): -0.31%, essentially flat, and the study’s 2040 projection for that station pointed to slightly more cold hours, not fewer
- Bryce: +0.96%, the one site where cold hours rose at that mark
The study found February had the strongest warming signal of the winter months. Precipitation showed no clear trend.
Read the fine print
The stations sit near the resorts, not on the slopes. Snowshoe’s is Elkins airport, 33.5 miles away and far lower than the mountain. The study calls the stations “proxies” and says slope-scale effects are missing. Usable records also run 11 to 18 seasons per site, not a full two decades.
Most important, the study says “linear trends were not statistically significant (p > 0.05)” across stations. Prentice argues the consistent downward direction still points to “a regional pattern,” and his 2040 projections are described as “not intended to represent full climate forecasts.”
What the snowmakers said
Interviews with snowmaking managers at Wisp, Snowshoe and Massanutten describe later openings, shorter cold spells and “growing reliance on high-capacity, automated snowmaking systems.” Snowmaking officials told Prentice the goal has shifted from opening by Thanksgiving to a more reliable target in early to mid-December.
That matches the spending we have covered, from Wisp’s snowmaking upgrades to Wintergreen’s new snow guns and its push for opening day. Fewer cold hours make each one count more, which is also why NOAA’s warm-leaning outlook for this winter matters, and why season length weighs on pass value at Snowshoe.
The study’s own advice: put weather stations at resort summits and bases, so the next look can measure the mountains themselves.
Corrections: info@mtninfo.com